Coronavirus (COVID-19) General Chat

[Lawrence]

Zero deaths in Scotland again in the last 24 hours but the restrictions for shielded people will be xtended until the end of July but from the 18th of June outdoor exercise is permitted. Still no contact with anyone outside the household though. And for everyone else, it looks like there could be some restrictions eased on 18th June (phase 2).

That's good to read. Take the time to remove restrictions, see if any new spikes (why and where), and adjust if needed.

 

[Franco Pinion]

Hopefully we will see some restrictions eased next week.

I'll be honest I'll be annoyed if phase 2 isn't rolled out as one. They took long enough to develop and share their route map. Deviating from it at the first opportunity would be a disappointing move.

 

[Gemma]

I'll be honest I'll be annoyed if phase 2 isn't rolled out as one. They took long enough to develop and share their route map. Deviating from it at the first opportunity would be a disappointing move.

She has said from the start that it might be that not every aspect of each phase will be rolled out at once so don't think it would be a surprise to anyone

 

[Franco Pinion]

She has said from the start that it might be that not every aspect of each phase will be rolled out at once so don't think it would be a surprise to anyone

If it's necessary to deviate from the route map at the very first opportunity then perhaps it should have been 5 phases. Bear in mind this hinting comes just 11 days after we set off on it.

I stand by my comment that any deviation from a route map after just 3 weeks is not a good look.

 

[Emma]

Positive that the number of deaths appear to be getting lower. Hopefully this continues.

 

[Franco Pinion]

Positive that the number of deaths appear to be getting lower. Hopefully this continues.

Mondays tend to be low because it follows the weekend. Tomorrow will be considerably higher. But if one does a week on week comparison things are definitely getting much much better on pretty much all metrics.

With London, Scotland and Northern Ireland reporting no deaths it isn't possible to deny that a corner has been turned at this stage.

Reported case numbers are on the decline also.

 

[Jess]

Mondays tend to be low because it follows the weekend. Tomorrow will be considerably higher. But if one does a week on week comparison things are definitely getting much much better on pretty much all metrics.

With London, Scotland and Northern Ireland reporting no deaths it isn't possible to deny that a corner has been turned at this stage.

Reported case numbers are on the decline also.

The reported case numbers are probably more significant from a planning point of view. The deaths are tragic and shocking, but they are the endpoint of events which occurred on average 6 weeks ago. New diagnoses are the outcome of things that happened more like 2 weeks ago, so they give you significantly more up-to-date information on changes in the rate/spread of infections. And, if changes to the lockdown rules, or in the observation of lockdown rules, do lead to an uptick, that will be detectable in the rate of new diagnoses long before it affects the rate of hospitalisation or the death rate.

It's the deaths that get the headlines, and that's understandable. But it's the new diagnoses that the epidemiologists will be watching very closely.

 

[Dylan]

7 new deaths in Scotland. How does that compare to previous Tuesdays?

 

[David76]

How does that compare to previous Tuesdays?

12, 18, 29 and 50 were the last 4

 

[Birdman]

12 deaths today, not unsurprising. Tuesday/Wednesday is usually the peak days. Hopefully decreases back again towards the end of the week.

Only 12 new infections by NHS labs and only 18 in ICU though.