Russian Invasion of Ukraine | A War in Europe After Hours

[Sad Professor]

NATO aren't going to militarily get involved, the window of opportunity for that has passed. They could roll in and wipe out this much publicised military column heading for Kyiv if they really wanted to, but imagine what the ramifications of that would be. If anything, they're banking on and enabling the inevitable insurgency to eventually push Russia out.

 

[Gemma]

I still finding it hard to believe this is actually happening. My heart is breaking for Ukraine and its people. Based on what I've read and discussed with people who know way more than me:

• Russia tried to take the country quickly and install their own government, it turned out resistance was much harder than they expected and they were not as welcome there as they thought
• Russia have now entered a strategy of just hammering cities, to which Ukraine can put no resistance
• There is no realistic chance of Russia holding all of Ukraine over the long term, so most likely they will sit on the Eastern Ukraine where the resources are, and may give less attention to Western Ukraine
• Ukraine are keeping a lot of their resources on the West of the country too, in order to ensure that supplies keep coming
• NATO and US have done their work in terms of equipment and sanctions but will not make any further steps in order to not escalate this into WW3. They are most likely hoping that over the long term sanctions are going to impact Russia and cause change in order. Chances of global military conflict are miniscule.
• It was a grossly miscalculated invasion which has gone much worse than Russia had planned for
• In the meantime thousands if not millions of civilians are going to die just because Putin does not like how hard it is to invade a sovereign country and make it yours.

 

[Franco Pinion]

The West will, under no circumstances, get militaristically involved. As soon as Russia played the nuclear card, right or wrong, this is the reality.

 

[Crabtree]

This Fiona Hill interview is excellent and well worth reading. Her background is everything relevant for this. Shes a doctor in Russian history. Has been US advisor on Russia under various Presidents including Trump and had been in the room with Putin during presidential discussions.

Learnt far more in 15 minutes reading that then any of the other things knocking around. She talks about his motivations, personality and what he might do next.

It's not overly dramatic but alarming

 

[Jason]

Nothing will happen, the costs and risk has gone too high.

When Russia were amassing troops and artillery on the border for 'training exercises', that's when US and couple of other nations should have placed the air force on Ukrainian soil and said we're doing 'training exercises' too.

Match bullshit with bullshit in public and let Russia know in absolute clear terms via the private channels that Ukraine is a sovereign state and there will be retaliation if Russia attacks. Put the onus on Putin and see how much he likes it.

 

[Legion]

Western news outlets - BBC, Bloomberg, CNN, Sky etc - are to stop broadcasting in Russia after Putin signed a decree that could see people jailed for up to 15 years for the spread of "fake" news about the Russian armed forces (ie telling the truth about what is happening in Ukraine).

Facebook and Twitter have also been blocked.

 

[Legion]

Sky News team's harrowing account of their violent ambush in Ukraine this week - caution needed when opening this link.

 

[Welshy]

First I'd like to say I do understand to some degree of NATO declining to intervene, even with a no - fly zone, at this stage, because it would escalate.

However, I really do think we have backed ourselves into a problem in some ways. And must have accepted Ukraine is lost. The problem with so categorically ruling out involvement has left Putin to call us on it, and almost given him a blank cheque to do what he likes. It's one thing (albeit immoral) to not get involved beyond proxy, but the issue now is we've backed ourselves into a place where some of the truly horrific things Putin is doing, (like shelling escape corridors, reckless destruction of cities) which goes beyond an invasion (already bad enough) into serious war crimes, won't be dealt with because Putin knows we've decided not to intervene. He knows he can do what he likes. Even if we knew we weren't going to get involved, we have played it all wrong.

My overarching view is we are doing the right thing to not immediately escalate this, but I definitely think we could have played our hand better and not just end up in a situation to give Putin a free pass. But every bit this gets worse, the more I'm getting closer to the line of, allowing this to go unpunished is as bad an outcome as escalation. Because if we don't, we are also OKing what goes next. And giving thought like this an opportunity to flourish.

 

[Welshy]

Very lucky.

 

[Franco Pinion]

Rattled? I didn't think the UK was doing too much, and I'm sure they said we were irrelevant not too long ago.

UK accuses Russia of using ceasefire to prepare new attacks

www.standard.co.uk