Russian Invasion of Ukraine | A War in Europe After Hours

[Tom]

The departure of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's powerful chief of staff, Andrii Yermak, on Friday was one of the most significant developments of the last week.

He was the leading figure on the Ukrainian side in peace talks with the US.

Zelenskyy's towering chief of staff has been by his side since he ran for president in 2019. The pair know each other from the entertainment industry - Zelenskyy was a comedian and actor; Yermak offered legal services in the industry before becoming a film producer.

He was appointed chief of staff in 2020. Yermak has wielded tremendous power, including over ministerial and military appointments and over who had access to the president. He was also most recently representing Ukraine in Geneva negotiations on the US-proposed peace plan.

Critics have long been wary about Yermak's elevated wartime status as an unelected figure. He is effectively the second most powerful person in the country after Zelenskyy, which meant questions were raised about what he knew about the major corruption surrounding the state nuclear energy company.

Yermak was previously accused of pushing for legislation that scuttled the independence of two anti-corruption bodies. It was overturned after pressure from Western allies.

I have a Ukrainian friend who has talked about the corruption in the country for years. Long before the war started. I am now beginning to see what she has been talking about all this time.

 

[Tom]

This needs to happen but I have my doubts as Europe always drags its feet...

 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1994904935142756630

 

[Franco Pinion]

Putin is delusional but he is probably trying to appeal to the nutter in the White House.

"Europe is preventing the US administration from achieving peace on Ukraine," Putin said, adding: "Russia does not intend to fight Europe, but if Europe starts, we are ready right now."

Trump will probably flip again once he hears this.

 

[Bingo]

The Russian UK ambassador today claimed that the Novichok poisonings were staged

When does the world start calling out these liars?

 

[Strawberry Man]

After weeks of talks, Ukraine and the U.S. have prepared a draft of the revised peace plan to end Russia's full-scale war.

The Kyiv Independent is publishing the draft of the potential 20-point peace plan, developed by Ukraine and the U.S, and presented and paraphrased by the president of Ukraine.

Spoiler

1. The signatories affirm that Ukraine is a sovereign state.

2. The document constitutes a full and unquestionable non-aggression agreement between Russia and Ukraine. A monitoring mechanism will be set up to oversee the conflict line using satellite-based unmanned surveillance, ensuring early detection of violations.

3. Ukraine will receive security guarantees.

4. The size of Ukraine's Armed Forces will remain at 800,000 personnel during peacetime.

5. The U.S., NATO, and European signatory states will provide Ukraine with "Article 5–like" guarantees. Following points apply:

A) If Russia invades Ukraine, a coordinated military response will be launched, and all global sanctions against Russia will be reinstated.

B) If Ukraine invades Russia or opens fire at Russian territory without provocation, the security guarantees will be considered void. If Russia opens fire on Ukraine, the security guarantees will come into effect.

C) The U.S. will receive compensation for providing security guarantees. (This provision has been removed.)

D) Previously signed bilateral security agreements between Ukraine and around 30 countries will remain in place.

6. Russia will formalize its non-aggression stance towards Europe and Ukraine in all necessary laws and documents, ratifying them by Russia's State Duma.

7. Ukraine will become an EU member at a clearly designated time and will receive a short-term preferential access to the European market.

"As of today, the timing of Ukraine's accession is a bilateral discussion between the United States and Ukraine, without European confirmation for now," Zelensky said.

"Membership in the European Union is also our security guarantee, and therefore we want to set a date — when this will happen. For example, 2027 or 2028."

8. Ukraine will receive a global development package, detailed in a separate agreement, covering various economic areas:

A) A development fund will be created for investing in fast-growing industries, including technology, data centers, and artificial intelligence."

B) The U.S. and U.S. companies will work with Ukraine to jointly invest in the restoration, modernization, and operation of Ukraine's gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities.

C) Joint efforts will be made to rebuild war-torn areas, focusing on restoring and modernizing cities and residential neighborhoods.

D) Infrastructure development will be prioritized.

E) Extraction of minerals and natural resources will be expanded.

F) The World Bank will provide a special funding package to support the acceleration of these efforts.

G) A high-level working group will be established, including the appointment of a leading global financial expert as the prosperity administrator to oversee the implementation of the strategic recovery plan and future prosperity.

9. The creation of several funds to address the restoration of the Ukrainian economy, the reconstruction of damaged areas and regions, and humanitarian issues will be established. The aim is to mobilize $800 billion, the estimated cost of the damage from the Russian war.

10. Ukraine will accelerate the process of negotiating a free trade agreement with the U.S.

11. Ukraine reaffirms its commitment to remaining a non-nuclear state, in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

12. Control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and the restoration of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant.

Washington proposes that the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant be jointly operated by Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S., with each country controlling 33%, and the U.S. serving as the primary overseer of the station.

Ukraine opposes Russian control over the plant. Kyiv proposes that the plant be managed by a joint venture consisting of the U.S. and Ukraine, where 50% of the electricity generated will go to Ukrainian-controlled territories, while the U.S. determines the distribution of the other 50%.

"We believe that for all of this to take place and function safely, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the city of Enerhodar, and the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant must be demilitarized, because at present there are Russian troops and war there, and there is no necessary level of security," Zelensky said.

13. Ukraine and Russia will introduce school courses that promote understanding and tolerance of different cultures, fight racism and prejudice. Ukraine will approve EU rules on religious tolerance and minority language protection.

14. In Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts, the line of military positions on the date of signing will be recognized as the de facto front line.

A) To determine troop movements needed to end the war and set up potential "free economic zones," with Russia withdrawing its troops from these areas.

B) Russia must withdraw its troops from occupied parts of Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv oblasts for the agreement to take effect.

C) International forces will be placed along the front line to monitor the agreement's implementation.

D) The parties agree to follow the rules and obligations imposed by the 1949 Geneva Conventions and their additional protocols, including universal human rights.

"So we are in a situation where the Russians want us to withdraw from Donetsk Oblast, while the Americans are trying to find a way for us not to withdraw because we are against withdrawal," Zelensky said.

"They are looking for a demilitarized zone or a free economic zone, meaning a format that could satisfy both sides. We consider a free economic zone a potential option for a sovereign state to choose such a path. We fought for a single word — 'potential.' We believe that such potential economic zones can exist," he added.

"We are saying: if all regions are included and if we remain where we are, then we will reach an agreement. That is why it says 'potential zones' here. But if we do not agree to 'remain where we are,' there are two options: either the war continues, or something will have to be decided regarding all potential economic zones."

15. Russia and Ukraine commit to refraining from using force to alter territorial arrangements and will resolve any disputes through diplomatic means.

16. Russia will not obstruct Ukraine's use of the Dnipro River and the Black Sea for commercial purposes. A separate maritime agreement will ensure freedom of navigation and transport, with the Russian-occupied Kinburn Spit being demilitarized.

17. Establishment of a humanitarian committee that will ensure the following:

A) All-for-all prisoner exchange.

B) All detained civilians, including children and political prisoners, will be freed.

C) Actions will be taken to address the problems and alleviate the suffering of conflict victims.

18. Ukraine must hold presidential elections as soon as possible after the deal is signed.

19. The deal will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored by the Peace Council, chaired by Trump. Ukraine, Europe, NATO, Russia, and the U.S. will be part of this process. Violations will lead to sanctions.

20. The ceasefire will take effect immediately once all parties agree to the deal.

Can't see Putin signing this. Even if it's his only get out of jail scot-free card

 

[Gemma]

In recent statements, former President Donald Trump has suggested that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, rather than Russian President Vladimir Putin, is the primary obstacle to a peace deal in the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. This assertion marks a significant divergence from the consensus among European allies who view Putin as the aggressor in the situation.

During a conversation with Reuters, Trump claimed that while "Putin is ready to make a deal," Zelensky is not as willing to engage in negotiations. This claim contrasts sharply with the prevailing narrative that attributes the lack of progress in peace talks to Russia's military aggression and repeated rejections of ceasefire proposals.

 

[Dylan]

In recent statements, former President Donald Trump has suggested that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, rather than Russian President Vladimir Putin, is the primary obstacle to a peace deal in the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. This assertion marks a significant divergence from the consensus among European allies who view Putin as the aggressor in the situation.

During a conversation with Reuters, Trump claimed that while "Putin is ready to make a deal," Zelensky is not as willing to engage in negotiations. This claim contrasts sharply with the prevailing narrative that attributes the lack of progress in peace talks to Russia's military aggression and repeated rejections of ceasefire proposals.

He's an idiot. Someone really needs to show him up for the cunt he is - embarrass him on the world stage instead of appeasing him.

Moscow has, of course, supported these remarks made by Donald Trump, which pointed the finger at Volodymyr Zelenskyy for delays in agreeing on a peace deal.

 

[Sad Professor]

Vladislav Surkov has fled Russia.

If you don't know who he is.... He is the architect of the war on truth, which Putin has relied on for the past decade or more. He created the troll farms and was behind Russia's interference with Western elections and the Brexit referendum. He is the man behind the idea that 'nothing is true and everything is possible'.

In short, he has been central to Putin's rise as a dictator, and to much of the underhanded stuff Russia has been getting up to domestically and around the world.

He's now on the run - possibly lying low in UAE.

The Ghost Who Fled: Surkov’s Fall and the Unravelling of Putinism

Perhaps the key protagonist of Trojan Horses, which covers Russia's information war against the West from 2012-2020, is now reportedly a fugitive

pdjukes.substack.com

 

[Steve]

This doesn't surprise me, to be honest

 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2031374484888752268

 

[Strawberry Man]

In what could be a big moment for Ukraine and the EU, Hungary's Viktor Orbán's 16 years in power is over and a system condemned as an "electoral autocracy" lies in tatters, defeated by a 45-year-old former party insider who convinced a majority of Hungarians to bring it to an end.

The landslide will not only allow Magyar to overturn Orbán's increasingly unpopular domestic policies, but reset Hungary's global relationships.

Orbán has been a close partner of both US President Donald Trump - earning an in-person appearance from US Vice-President JD Vance in the final week of the campaign - and Russia's Vladimir Putin, and he had become a big thorn in the side of the EU and Ukraine.

Let's see how things unfold.