NFL Postseason: Road to Super Bowl LVIII NFL

[Birdman]

What is Dan Campbell playing at?

I cannot believe he hasn't kicked the field goal this time.

Once, I get it. But to do it twice is stupid.

 

[Birdman]

And that will be the game.

That is firmly on Dan Campbell.

It will be interesting to see what is said after the game.

 

[Steve]

This second half...

I'm sorry, but Detroit this is a collapse as huge as the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl LI (2017)

 

[Steve]

Finally the Lions score in the second half.

 

[Birdman]

49ers will meet the Chiefs in Vegas for Super Bowl LVIII

 

[Steve]

49ers will meet the Chiefs in Vegas for Super Bowl LVIII

Shocking game management throughout from Campbell.

He really threw that one away.

 

[Franco Pinion]

Only saw the extended highlights today but what a great pair of games. I really enjoyed both.

Brock Purdy played more like Lamar than Lamar did last night. The Lions will be regretting not taking a FG attempt at least once on those fourth downs. It should be a great Super Bowl.

Mahomes v Purdy. (Edge to Mahomes)

Pacheco v McCaffrey. (Edge to McCaffrey)

Kelce v Kittle. (Edge to Kelce)

Rice/Valdez Scantling v Deebo/Aiyuk. (Edge to Deebo/Aiyuk)

Reid v Shanahan. (Edge to Reid)

Re last night's two matches, it demonstrates how much top level sport can be decided on the finest of margins. The punch out as Flowers was airborne going over the line and the bomb that deflects of a face mask and into Aiyuk's hands. Incredible and brilliant to watch.

 

[Tom]

Only saw the extended highlights today but what a great pair of games. I really enjoyed both.

Brock Purdy played more like Lamar than Lamar did last night. The Lions will be regretting not taking a FG attempt at least once on those fourth downs. It should be a great Super Bowl.

Mahomes v Purdy. (Edge to Mahomes)

Pacheco v McCaffrey. (Edge to McCaffrey)

Kelce v Kittle. (Edge to Kelce)

Rice/Valdez Scantling v Deebo/Aiyuk. (Edge to Deebo/Aiyuk)

Reid v Shanahan. (Edge to Reid)

Re last night's two matches, it demonstrates how much top level sport can be decided on the finest of margins. The punch out as Flowers was airborne going over the line and the bomb that deflects of a face mask and into Aiyuk's hands. Incredible and brilliant to watch.

I'd take Kittle's blocking over Kelce's, but Kelce is on fire in the playoffs with his catching and has needed to be.

 

[Tom]

My live reaction was that all Dan Campbell's 4th down calls were defensible, and the math matches that. The Lions had converted 20/25 such opportunities this year in those situations - they had done it a ton and had proven to be very successful with it.

The coach can only call the plays he thinks his team can execute. DC wasn't going to call out the Reynolds 4th down drop in his post-game presser, but if he caught that pass there is a good chance we are talking about a different outcome. No guarantees, but 3 if not 7 points plus burning more clock would have been a game changer.

BUT! Momentum is a real thing. Not sure how the "math" accounts for that if at all. Once Reynolds dropped that ball, the fans roared back to life and the Niners surged the rest of the way. Pretty sure a field goal attempt would not have generated the same response, whether miss or make.

 

[Steve]

My live reaction was that all Dan Campbell's 4th down calls were defensible, and the math matches that. The Lions had converted 20/25 such opportunities this year in those situations - they had done it a ton and had proven to be very successful with it.

The coach can only call the plays he thinks his team can execute. DC wasn't going to call out the Reynolds 4th down drop in his post-game presser, but if he caught that pass there is a good chance we are talking about a different outcome. No guarantees, but 3 if not 7 points plus burning more clock would have been a game changer.

BUT! Momentum is a real thing. Not sure how the "math" accounts for that if at all. Once Reynolds dropped that ball, the fans roared back to life and the Niners surged the rest of the way. Pretty sure a field goal attempt would not have generated the same response, whether miss or make.

What does the math say about the odds of winning when taking a 17-point lead late in the 3rd quarter? The problem with leaning on analytics so hard is they don't consider the overall context of the game or even where the team is in the game (down and distance, time on the clock, the score). Those 20 of 25 times were not in a high-leverage situation like last night. I bet that if there were only 2 minutes left in the 4th they would have kicked it. But they wanted more points rather than make it a 3 possession game.