NFL 2026: Season Discussion Thread NFL

[Steve]

The Seattle Seahawks are the Super Bowl Champions, and they are also up for sale.

The Seattle Seahawks were a long-shot champion this season, but they won't be next season. That's not to say the Seahawks can't win it all again, but they just won't be long shots if they do. Seattle opened as the favourite to win next year's Super Bowl on BetMGM. Seattle is currently +800 (8-to-1) to win a second straight title, implying a roughly 11 per cent chance of a repeat. That's a big gap from the 60-to-1 odds Seattle had at the start of this past season.

As for the other contenders, a familiar rival is right behind the Seahawks: the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams are +900 (9-to-1) to win the Super Bowl. The Seahawks and Rams met in the NFC Championship Game, which was only decided by four points. All three meetings between the two NFC West powers were decided by one score.

The Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens are next up at +1200 (12-to-1). These two teams have been Super Bowl contenders for years thanks to MVP-winning quarterbacks, though both have fallen back a bit (especially Baltimore).

As long as the Bills still have Josh Allen, Buffalo will be among the main contenders. However, with a coaching change and a roster around him that needs some work, it's unclear whether Buffalo will finally break through and win its first Super Bowl.

Lamar Jackson should keep the Ravens in contention, but Derrick Henry is 32 years old with a lot of carries under his belt. The team will have to find Jackson more help to return to contention. Baltimore also underwent a coaching change.

All the teams that sacked their coaches have now found replacements, and all the teams have now entered the offseason and are preparing for the 2026 season.

 

[Steve]

The Arizona Cardinals have informed Kyler Murray that they plan to release him next Wednesday on the first day of the league year, sources confirmed on Tuesday. The decision is the first, and biggest, step in Arizona's quest to find its next franchise quarterback. It also ends Murray's seven-year run in the desert.

Murray, the No. 1 pick of the 2019 NFL draft, had moments - he made two Pro Bowls - but he never lived up to expectations. He was 38-48-1 as a starter. He never won a playoff game. Last season, Murray played in only five games because of a foot injury suffered in an embarrassing Week 5 home loss to the Tennessee Titans.

 

[Steve]

The Indianapolis Colts have placed the transition tag on quarterback Daniel Jones, league sources confirmed on Tuesday. This decision ensures that Jones will remain under contract in Indy for at least one more season.

This also means that the team's other potential tag candidate, wide receiver Alec Pierce, is set to become an unrestricted free agent. However, the team's goal has always been to keep both of their top free agents - Jones and Pierce - off the market, with Pierce's representatives and the Colts continuing to negotiate, per the sources.

The Colts' tag decision was essentially a choice between Jones and Pierce. Jones played at a Pro Bowl level and led the Colts to an 8-2 start before he got injured last season. Pierce emerged as the Colts' No. 1 receiver while notching his first 1,000-yard receiving season and leading the NFL in yards per reception (21.3) for the second straight year.

The Colts ultimately picked Jones, whom general manager Chris Ballard has repeatedly labelled as the team's short- and long-term answer at the most important position in football, probably because they don't have a viable Plan B if he were to leave in free agency. The only other quarterbacks the Colts have under contract in 2026 are 2025 sixth-round pick Riley Leonard and 2023 No. 4 pick Anthony Richardson Sr, with the latter recently requesting a trade. Additionally, the Colts also don't have any first-round picks until 2028.

Jones and the Colts now have until 4 p.m. ET on July 15 to reach a multiyear agreement. If they do not, he'll be set to make a fully guaranteed $37.8 million in 2026 if he chooses to play on the transition tag. Keep in mind that $37.8 million immediately counts against the Colts' 2026 cap space until they can reach a long-term deal with Jones. Indianapolis had only $33.1 million in cap space entering this offseason, per Over the Cap, so it is roughly $4.7 million over at the moment. If the Colts and Jones come to a multiyear agreement, the team would then be able to structure his deal in a manner that would allow it to recoup cap space this offseason and retool the rest of the roster.

Other interested teams, however, can still make a bid for Jones, and he is eligible to sign an offer sheet with a new team. The Colts would then have the right to match any offer to retain Jones, but unlike with the more expensive and restrictive non-exclusive franchise tag that's set at $43.9 million for a QB in 2026, there is no draft compensation involved with the transition tag. If a new team makes a bid for a player on the non-exclusive franchise tag, the original team is entitled to two first-round picks from the new team if the original team lets the player leave.

 

[Steve]

The New York Jets are franchise-tagging running back Breece Hall, according to league sources.

The Jets and Hall's representatives were working toward a contract at last week's NFL combine. The initial plan was to use the cheaper transition tag to retain Hall, according to league sources, but the Jets altered course.

The franchise tender carries a cap hit of $14.29 million, which the Jets will count against their cap space until (or unless) Hall signs a new contract. The deadline to agree on a new contract with Hall is July 15 - after that point, his only option would be to sign the one-year tender or hold out.

General manager Darren Mougey said at the combine that the team's preference was to sign Hall to a new contract, but added that the Jets would use whatever avenue they could to keep him around. If they had used the transition tag, it would have carried a value of $11.32 million. The other difference between the two tags: On the transition tag, Hall can negotiate a contract with other teams, with the Jets getting the right of first refusal if an offer were to come in. If New York opted not to match the offer, it wouldn't receive any compensation.

On the franchise tag, Hall can negotiate with other teams, and the Jets get the right of first refusal. If the Jets opt not match a contract from another team, the team that signs Hall would have to send the Jets two first-round picks. So by placing the franchise tag on Hall, that's an indication that New York doesn't want to risk losing him. As of now, the team also has no intention of trading him.

 

[Steve]

The Cincinnati Bengals will not apply the franchise tag and trade edge rusher Trey Hendrickson, league sources confirmed ahead of Tuesday's 4 p.m. ET deadline. Hendrickson is now a free agent, free to negotiate with any team.

A long, tumultuous relationship between the team and player will officially come to an end.

Hendrickson will hit the open market next week, a fate he's desired despite signing an extension and accepting a raise from the Bengals over the last three offseasons.

There was never a chance Hendrickson would play for the Bengals in 2026. They didn't offer a multiyear extension before last year because they didn't have interest in paying Hendrickson what he wanted into his mid-30s. He will turn 32 in December.

 

[Tom]

The Detroit Lions have made a significant move by trading veteran running back David Montgomery to the Houston Texans. In return, the Lions acquired a fourth-round pick, a seventh-round pick, and center Juice Scruggs, as reported by league sources.

Montgomery, who has been a key contributor to the Lions' offense over the past three seasons, saw his role diminish in 2025 as Jahmyr Gibbs emerged as the team's leading back. General Manager Brad Holmes addressed Montgomery's dissatisfaction with his reduced touches, which dropped to a career-low of just 158 carries last season.

As the Lions look to save salary cap space - Montgomery's hits of $8.4 million and $10.2 million in 2026 and 2027 were significant—they have opted to pair the younger and less expensive Gibbs with a new running back. This shift reflects a strategic decision to revamp their backfield amidst a changing offensive landscape.

In Houston, Montgomery will join Woody Marks, who had a promising rookie season. This pairing could bolster the Texans' running game, which ranked 18th in total offense last season, in contrast to the Lions' fifth-place finish.

 

[Steve]

The Kansas City Chiefs have traded All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie to the Los Angeles Rams for a draft haul that includes a 2026 first-round pick, a league source confirmed.

McDuffie, 25, was a first-round pick of the Chiefs in 2022 and was set to play on his fifth-year rookie option this season. He'll now get a chance to sign long-term with the Rams and play close to his hometown of Westminster, California.

The Chiefs will receive one of the Rams' first-round selections in the 2026 NFL Draft (No. 29) along with a fifth- and a sixth-round pick in this year's draft. The Rams will also send a 2027 third-round pick to the Chiefs.

Kansas City moved up from No. 29 to 21 in the 2022 draft to acquire McDuffie, and he's proved to be worth every bit of that since. McDuffie was first-team All-Pro in 2023 and second-team All-Pro in 2024, solidifying himself as a steady contributor on the back end while also providing leadership to a young Chiefs secondary.

 

[Steve]

In a cost-saving move, the New England Patriots are releasing wide receiver Stefon Diggs after one year, according to league sources.

Diggs' lone campaign with the Pats was a productive one, but the looming cap hit of $26.5 million that he would've been in line for in 2026 prompted the transaction.

Probably not just cost saving, but also headache saving too

 

[Steve]

The Chicago Bears are trading veteran wide receiver DJ Moore to the Buffalo Bills, according to league sources. The Bills are sending a 2026 second-round pick to the Bears in exchange for Moore and a 2026 fifth-round pick.

Moore, 28, had 244 receptions, 3,012 yards and 20 touchdowns across his three seasons with the Bears. His 50 catches and 682 yards in 2025, however, were both career lows.

Moore represents much of what the Bills had been certainly lacking in the 2025 season, and for much of the 2024 season, too. The Bills had tried to fill the Z receiver void ever since they traded away Stefon Diggs ahead of the 2025 season. They signed Curtis Samuel as a free agent, but it didn't work out. Then they traded for Amari Cooper, which also was a miss, as he couldn't get on the field for over 50 percent of snaps when he played. In 2025, the Bills signed Joshua Palmer to try to fill that void, but he was also inconsistent and couldn't stay on the field because of injuries. The Bills knew something had to be done to improve their passing game to open it up, and that's just what they're getting with Moore.

The newest Bills receiver will provide separation abilities and can uncover in the intermediate and deep areas, mostly from the Z receiver position. Moore hasn't had a passing quarterback quite like Josh Allen before, and given that receivers who major in separation have thrived with Allen in the past, this could be an outstanding pairing.

 

[Tom]

The Las Vegas Raiders have agreed to trade star pass rusher Maxx Crosby to the Baltimore Ravens in a blockbuster deal just before free agency begins.

The Ravens will send the Raiders two first-round picks: No. 14 in the 2026 NFL Draft next month and their selection in 2027. The deal, which is contingent on Crosby passing a physical in Baltimore, cannot be made official until the new league year opens Wednesday. Free agency effectively begins at noon ET Monday, when the legal tampering window opens.

The Dallas Cowboys and Jacksonville Jaguars also made significant pushes this week to acquire Crosby, before the Ravens closed the deal, league sources said.

Crosby, a five-time Pro Bowler, was selected by the then-Oakland Raiders in the fourth round of the 2019 draft but developed into the face of the franchise and one of the league's best defensive players. He will now join a Ravens team that struggled mightily to impact the quarterback last year, providing an elite pass rusher as new head coach Jesse Minter works to turn around a traditionally strong defense.