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Russian Invasion of Ukraine | A War in Europe After Hours 

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Russia's invasion hardens into a long war of attrition and broken diplomacy
7/10 Heated debate

The post presents timely information and includes quotes from credible sources, enhancing its overall relevance. However, it could benefit from more personal insights or analysis to increase its value to the community.

Russian invasion sanctions Kyiv NATO ceasefire talks US aid

The thread opens with alarm as the invasion begins, quickly shifting from cautious speculation to shock and anger as reports confirm attacks on major Ukrainian cities. Early posts focus on troop buildups, civilian danger, NATO limits, and the belief that Russia has launched a war that will carry severe military, economic, and political costs.12

As the war grinds on, the discussion becomes dominated by battlefield updates, sanctions, atrocities, and repeated fears of escalation, including nuclear and chemical threats. Members debate the meaning of territorial gains and losses, condemn Russian propaganda, and increasingly frame the conflict as a struggle not just over land but over the survival of Ukrainian sovereignty.34

Later posts shift toward exhaustion with Western hesitation and then toward frustration at U.S. policy, especially under Trump, whose shifting positions on aid, ceasefires, and negotiations are treated as dangerously pro-Russian. The thread ends with a broad consensus that Ukraine cannot be forced into surrender terms, while Europe must become more self-reliant and skeptical of Washington's reliability.56

"In my view this doesn’t (or, can’t) end without the absolute end of the Putin era in Russia."

"We don't want this war and have never wanted it, But if Ukraine burns, your Moscow will burn too."

Verdict

No lasting resolution is reached, but the thread does crystallize a shared view that Russia's demands are unacceptable and that Ukraine's survival depends on sustained external support. The strongest agreement is on the need for Europe to harden its stance, while the biggest open wound remains whether the West can still shape the outcome.

Black Sheep Collaborator
Not been a good few weeks for Putin. Firstly, Iran has been decimated - you would imagine it will be difficult for them to supply drones to Russia in the current climate. Now, Orban has been ousted. Just need to get rid of Trump and Fico now :LOL:
 
Welshy Enthusiast
Footage from Moscow this morning is insane.

Ukraine has launched the largest drone offensive on Moscow of the full-scale war, in an attack that damaged a key oil refinery, caused fires, and sent debris raining down across the region.

Air defenses shot down at least 194 drones bound for the Russian capital overnight into Thursday, according to Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin. That's far higher than other days of heavy attacks in recent months, when drones only numbered in the double digits, and provides a stark example of Kyiv's dramatically improved drone capabilities since Russia's full-scale invasion of the country began more than four years ago.

The barrage, which left at least 17 people injured, was part of a larger Ukrainian attack over a broad swath of Russia, with air defenses intercepting almost 1,000 drones, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense – including over the Sea of Azov.

Ukraine struck a key oil refinery in Moscow early Thursday morning for the second time this week, Russian officials said, as Kyiv increasingly targets Russian energy infrastructure in long-range attacks.
 

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Franco Pinion Rising Star
This is a great quote from Zelenskyy.

"We don't want this war and have never wanted it," Zelenskyy said. "But if Ukraine burns, your Moscow will burn too."

Zelenskyy, the reluctant politician, has become a figurehead for Ukraine who supports and rallies his country. He is a real statesman who tries to maintain the dignity of office that others worldwide do well to learn.
 
Hedonistic Blonde Contributor
Franco Pinion Rising Star
Bob the Ninja Enthusiast
Analysts from Russia's Sberbank outlined 8 probability scenarios for how the war might end, according to a leaked internal document dated April 2026.
  1. Russian decisive military advantage: 7% probability
  2. Western exhaustion, peace on Russian terms: 12% probability
  3. Trump deal, frozen conflict: 32% probability
  4. Korean freeze, no formal agreement: 22% probability
  5. Protracted war: 15% probability
  6. Peace on compromise terms - 5% probability
  7. Peace on Ukrainian-European terms: 2% probability
  8. Wild card, black swan events: 5% probability
On conclusions:
Russia's window of maximum bargaining power is summer-fall 2026. After this period, the balance shifts: the liquid part National Welfare Fund(~4 trillion rubles) is melting away at the current rate of withdrawal (~400 billion rubles per quarter), European rearmament is gaining momentum ($50–60 billion by 2027), Trump is focusing on the midterm elections and may lose interest in the "deal."

You can read with Google translate:
Аналитики Сбербанка оценили вероятность победы РФ в войне против Украины в 7%. Хакеры из Black Mirror опубликовали внутренний документ банка
 
Gemma Mentor
Black Sheep Collaborator
The EU has approved the release of €7.1BN in aid, including for PAC3 Patriot interceptors and drones.

PAC3 is needed for citywide missile defence.
 
Bingo Explorer
Shocked to see this morning that South Korea are shipping fuel to Russia?

A Guardian investigation found that 176,000 tonnes of fuel, mainly diesel, were shipped from South Korea to Russia in July and August.

Seven tankers made 14 trips to Russia's Far East - and three were already under UK or EU sanctions.
  • The sanctioned Layla carried 57,000 tonnes of diesel to Vladivostok on two trips. On the second, it declared Japan as its destination.
  • Astoria, another sanctioned tanker, loaded nearly 11,000 tonnes in Ulsan, declared Japan — then sailed straight to Vladivostok.
  • Chongchon took roughly 26,000 tonnes from another tanker through a ship-to-ship transfer off South Korea, declared Singapore, then headed for Russia.
 
Best Collaborator
Keith Kellogg had a video out a few days ago advising Zelensky to burn Russia's oil refineries despite Trump's diesel deal with Putin. Kellogg was Trump's Security Advisor in his first administration and his special envoy to Ukraine in his second administration along with being the NSA for V/P Pence. I guess Kellogg won't be the flavour of the day in the White House.

 
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